The Copper Syllogism

Climate policy success requires a transition to a carbon free global energy system by the middle of the century.

This requires electrification to replace combustion as the principal path for personal and business access to energy services.

Global production of copper must double in the next two decades to accomplish a timely energy transition.

Sufficient copper exists but its timely availability will require a large and consistent flow of capital into the mining and processing of copper resources .

If this flow of capital is too slow then the pace of the energy transition will slow.

If the energy transition slows then demands for fossil fuels will increase.

If demand for fossil fuels increase then climate change will continue to accelerate.

If climate change continues to accelerate then flow of capital required to increase copper production will grow.

If the cost of producing copper increases the pace of the energy transition will slow……RINSE AND REPEAT.

Note: Copper demand today is about 28Mt/​year about 30% of which comes from just 20 mines. Wood Mackenzie’s energy transition scenario for 2050 would require an additional 28Mt/​year – possibly another 40 mines. The lowest estimate I have seen would require an additional 12Mt/​year. A new copper mines takes 15–25 years to develop and would require a very large amount of related infrastructure development to get the ore to additional smelters before the copper could get to markets.

The scale of capital at risk to get anywhere near these levels of production will not be driven by markets, so governments will have to intervene.